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Q1019
First Quarter 2019
Market Commentary:
Looking back, the S&P 500 reversed course from the end of the year and rallied for one of the best first quarters to start the year in two decades. The major worries of the market that pressured shares turned into tailwinds. Fears over growth were placated for the majority of companies when they reported earnings. While some areas remain challenged, most companies continue to ascribe to the view that the U.S. economic backdrop is supportive for another year of positive growth. This optimism drove small cap stocks to outpace large caps and growth stocks to rally over value stocks. The next headwind-turned-tailwind was the major pivot by the Federal Reserve, as their dot plot forecast removed any further interest rate hikes in 2019. Investors shifted their expectations to now believe the likely next action is a rate cut, with an increasing probability of that occurring into 2020, rather than a rate hike. Optimism also rose for a potential trade deal with China, as some progress appears to have been made which helped bolster both domestic and global markets during the quarter.
Looking forward to 2019, corporate earnings growth remains the most likely outcome for the full-year, though the next quarterly set of reports could be more challenged on difficult comparisions from 2018. While some companies may report slight declines in year-over-year earnings as a result, the majority of companies are expected to remain positive. Consumer strength remains a driver for continued economic growth as labor markets remain tight even amidst these macroeconomic uncertainties. Corporate investments continue to face headwinds from the global uncertainty, and investors remain keenly focused on the behavior of companies regarding their uses of cashflow, whether for long-term capital expenditures, returning it to shareholders, or reducing their leverage. These issues we believe will further separate those businesses with pricing power and higher- quality models as those decisions are key to creating long-term shareholder value. We remain vigilant in assessing absolute risk in the securities we invest in and striving to protect client capital during these times for potential volatility from the uncertainty.
Timothy Plan Large/Mid Cap Value Fund Q1 2019 Commentary
Index Drivers:
Within the S&P 500 Index, every sector posted positive returns during the first quarter, with Information Technology and Real Estate rallying the most while Health Care and Financials rose the least.
Performance Drivers:
The portfolio’s relative performance was aided by strong stock selection in Health Care and Materials. KLA-Tencor rallied on strong results as management indicated results should trough in the next quarter for their semiconductor business. Union Pacific saw their first quarter with precision scheduled railroading help drive productivity improvements with pricing also strong. J.M. Smucker saw positive organic growth as they continue to look for their investment spend and new products to boost topline growth in the coming years. Eagle Materials moved higher after reporting earnings as optimism for the spring construction season increased and an activist investor became involved in shares. PerkinElmer posted strong results ahead of expectations led by their diagnostics segment where topline growth exceeded 10 percent.
Unfavorable stock selection in Information Technology and Financials weighed on relative performance. Given the sharp rally in the markets, only two securities detracted from performance for the quarter. Amdocs declined despite an inline quarter on a negative research report that pressured shares. Everest Re also detracted modestly from performance due to missing estimates from elevated catastrophic losses and the ongoing remixing of their business.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Portfolio returns reflect the reinvestment of dividend and interest income. All information provided is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell or otherwise invest in any of the securities/sectors/countries that may be mentioned. A description of the methodology used to calculate the attribution analysis or a complete list of each holding’s contribution to overall performance during the measurement period may be obtained by contacting [email protected]. Benchmark Data Source: © 2019 FactSet Research Systems Inc. All Rights Reserved. Russell Investment Group is the owner of the trademarks, service marks, and copyrights related to its indexes, which have been licensed for use by Westwood.